Does a Person Working With an AI Model Beat a Person or a Model Alone?

Cliff Sosin says a person working with a model now beats either one alone. Computer-aided chess had a long stretch of freestyle chess, where the human plus the program out-competed the human alone and out-competed the computer alone, because each side thought differently and the mix was synergistic. Investing is in that era.

A person still understands things a model misses by having lived a life, and not everything is on the internet. Using a model and then judging makes better judgments while the gap remains, which he thinks will last a while. Later the gap can shrink until it does not matter. Models will not predict the future, because the future is intrinsically unpredictable, but the model's distribution of outcomes may be the best forecast available. Adding his judgment would then be like adding a view on rain in seven days: people would ignore Cliff and use the forecast, since fudging it makes the forecast worse. The day may come, in his view.

Models might also interview managers and judge them. He pictures someone who wants to run an amusement park. The model names six locations with a 51% chance of an amusement park working, rates the person at a 51.2% chance of succeeding because the person is slightly below average, and suggests a go-karting park. He does not think the shift will affect his career much, because it will take a while.