Smash Notes

Back to Cliff Sosin - Owning the Complements to Intelligence, with Cliff Sosin.

Why Is Cliff Sosin Comfortable With 80% of His Portfolio in Carvana?

Cliff Sosin is comfortable keeping most of his portfolio in Carvana because he thinks about the stake the way an owner thinks about a company, not the way a study of price swings tells a typical investor to diversify. Patrick O'Shaughnessy describes the portfolio as roughly 80 percent Carvana, a vacations holding, and about 5 percent Meta, with one position at 80 percent, and Sosin agrees. Asked whether an AI sizing tool would put less in Carvana, he says he is underweight and that it should be 90 percent.

He would not hold this much if he did not believe Carvana's infrastructure and brand left few scenarios that work out really badly. He compares it to finding Walmart, Home Depot, or Fastenal early and then failing to take the full ride. The investors who did very well tended to be concentrated, and the people who concentrated and lost are the ones that history leaves out. He says the diversification research is the right guide for someone seeking average or slightly better results, and that is not what he is seeking. A large rise that pushed him to diversify would be fine. He treats the stake as a trade-off between expected return and a risk he is choosing on purpose. That is his view of his own portfolio, not a recommendation.

Transcript

Cliff Sosin - Owning the Complements to Intelligence ·

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy

More from this episode

  1. Why Can't Even Superintelligent AI Predict the Future?Cliff Sosin says even superintelligent AI cannot predict most of what people want to know, because complex systems amplify tiny errors until a forecast falls…
  2. Who Makes Money When AI Intelligence Gets Cheap?Cliff Sosin says the businesses that benefit when intelligence gets cheap own the complements to intelligence, not the intelligence itself.
  3. When Do Price Cuts Shrink a Market?Cliff Sosin says a market shrinks once further price cuts stop creating enough demand, and a price of zero takes the market size to zero.
  4. When Does AI Reach Its Limit?Cliff Sosin says the limit arrives after the papers are finished.
  5. Why Does AI Infrastructure Get Overbuilt?Cliff Sosin says AI infrastructure gets pushed until it is overbuilt because a strong price signal is what makes a buildout of a huge technology possible at…
  6. Will AI Agents Push Customers to the Lowest-cost Provider?Cliff Sosin says that once people hand routine choices to an AI agent, the customer moves to the lowest-cost provider. He puts decisions on a spectrum.
  7. Does a Person Working With an AI Model Beat a Person or a Model Alone?Cliff Sosin says a person working with a model now beats either one alone.
  8. How Much of the Economy Moved Into AI?Cliff Sosin says American capital markets redeployed 3% of GDP into a highly speculative AI venture on the turn of a dime.
  9. How Does Cheap AI Affect Income?Cliff Sosin tells two stories about how cheap, ubiquitous intelligence affects wealth and income distribution.
  10. Why Should Kids Learn Math Without AI?Cliff Sosin argues that children should learn foundational skills apart from models so they can direct a model.

People

More answers like this

Related episodes

Plays from this note through the rest of the episode.

Weekly highlights

One letter a week.

The notes worth hearing, with the minute they were said.