When Does AI Reach Its Limit?

Cliff Sosin says the limit arrives after the papers are finished. Models read all the papers and figure out connections that a person who had read all three papers and thought about them would have seen, though nobody had. All kinds of great results fall out of the reading. At some point the mining of published work is done, and what is left is a hypothesis about how to think about things outside what people already know. Even a super smart model will not necessarily be better at guessing the hypothesis. The model will still guess better than the smartest person, but the smartest person's odds are super low anyway.

The model can come up with great ideas for experiments, and the experiments will be worth doing. Having to run them is what limits the ability to expand. A sharper guess than the smartest person still has to be tested before knowledge moves past what the papers already contain.