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Back to Cliff Sosin - Owning the Complements to Intelligence, with Cliff Sosin.

Will AI Agents Push Customers to the Lowest-cost Provider?

Cliff Sosin says that once people hand routine choices to an AI agent, the customer moves to the lowest-cost provider. He puts decisions on a spectrum. An insured bank deposit can be delegated: take the highest rate. A favorite sweater cannot. The agent can find options, and the person still has to choose. Garbage collection, in his stylized example, sits near the deposit. A cheaper hauler still struggles to win a switch today, because many people do not know what they pay and will not spend attention on it. An agent can hear an offer of 50 cents a month, confirm the trash still gets picked up, and switch.

A second effect is coordination on a street. One truck serving every house is cheaper, but neighbors are too lazy to line up on the same hauler, so the low-cost operator cannot roll the street up. Agents take that friction away. The operator who already serves two houses can offer everyone else a lower price, win the street, and become cheaper still. The low-cost producer then wins more volume at thinner margins. Many real companies, he says, have mixed effects that point both ways. This is his picture of how agents change a market, not advice to buy or avoid any business.

Transcript

Cliff Sosin - Owning the Complements to Intelligence ·

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy

More from this episode

  1. Why Can't Even Superintelligent AI Predict the Future?Cliff Sosin says even superintelligent AI cannot predict most of what people want to know, because complex systems amplify tiny errors until a forecast falls…
  2. Who Makes Money When AI Intelligence Gets Cheap?Cliff Sosin says the businesses that benefit when intelligence gets cheap own the complements to intelligence, not the intelligence itself.
  3. When Do Price Cuts Shrink a Market?Cliff Sosin says a market shrinks once further price cuts stop creating enough demand, and a price of zero takes the market size to zero.
  4. When Does AI Reach Its Limit?Cliff Sosin says the limit arrives after the papers are finished.
  5. Why Does AI Infrastructure Get Overbuilt?Cliff Sosin says AI infrastructure gets pushed until it is overbuilt because a strong price signal is what makes a buildout of a huge technology possible at…
  6. Does a Person Working With an AI Model Beat a Person or a Model Alone?Cliff Sosin says a person working with a model now beats either one alone.
  7. How Much of the Economy Moved Into AI?Cliff Sosin says American capital markets redeployed 3% of GDP into a highly speculative AI venture on the turn of a dime.
  8. How Does Cheap AI Affect Income?Cliff Sosin tells two stories about how cheap, ubiquitous intelligence affects wealth and income distribution.
  9. Why Is Cliff Sosin Comfortable With 80% of His Portfolio in Carvana?Cliff Sosin is comfortable keeping most of his portfolio in Carvana because he thinks about the stake the way an owner thinks about a company, not the way a…
  10. Why Should Kids Learn Math Without AI?Cliff Sosin argues that children should learn foundational skills apart from models so they can direct a model.

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