How Much of the Economy Moved Into AI?

Cliff Sosin says American capital markets redeployed 3% of GDP into a highly speculative AI venture on the turn of a dime. Worry about a decline in American dynamism ran into a market that moved capital at a scale and speed no other country has matched. He allows the fitting share might be two or six.

An inability to move investment into productive resources can bind productivity growth, especially when technology is advancing quickly. Capital spending is tied to people doing different work. Every day, people wake up and go to Pennsylvania to build a data center. The buildout depends on infrastructure that moved an enormous amount of capital.

Taking risk on speculative ventures and slicing the pie in different ways is not deeply new. Fresh names keep landing on what are essentially the same instruments. Fraud and bad behavior will show up when the water goes out.