Smash Notes

Back to The $2B AI Startup Simulating Human Behavior with 85% Accuracy, with Joon Sung Park.

Why Did Winning Electric Vehicle Messaging Lower Sales?

Joon Sung Park says a message that looked like a clear winner for a new electric vehicle also shifted how people saw non-electric vehicles and lowered sales across that whole market.

The study ran before Simile. He worked with a few automobile companies, some of the largest players in the field, and electric vehicles sat at the top of every conversation: whether to do it, when, and how. One simulation tested how people would react to different messaging for the entry of a new electric vehicle, and how to optimize that messaging so the company could convey its values. One strategy came back as a clear winner and looked ready to go. The same messaging then shifted overall perception of the non-electric vehicle and lowered sales within the entire market. The work ran in studies and later became an input.

Findings of that kind look past one narrow question and take the entire field as a whole. Simulation, at its best, surfaces an insight that is counterintuitive and surprising.

Grokipedia·Simile

Transcript

The $2B AI Startup Simulating Human Behavior with 85% Accuracy ·

Sourcery

More from this episode

  1. Why Do We Live in a Simulation?Joon Sung Park thinks we live in a simulation because any civilization will recreate itself to understand itself.
  2. What Was the Smallville AI Experiment?Joon Sung Park ran Smallville in 2022 and 2023 to see whether a language model could simulate a whole person, then a whole town.
  3. How Did Simile's Digital Twins Reach 85% Accuracy?Joon Sung Park says agents built as digital twins of real people predicted behavior with 85% or better accuracy by the end of 2024.
  4. When Is a Simile Simulation Confident Enough to Act on?Joon Sung Park says an AI simulation of a person is strong enough for a very high-stakes decision when confidence is higher than 90 percent, and usually when…
  5. Are Universal Basic Income Simulations Worth Running?Joon Sung Park calls universal basic income simulations good ones to run.
  6. Why Does Predicting Behavior Fail to Show What to Do?Joon Sung Park says a forecast is not what people came for.
  7. Is AI Behavior Simulation in Its GPT-4 Era?Joon Sung Park says AI behavior simulation is in its GPT-4 and GPT-4.5 era.
  8. Why Doesn't a Buyout Offer End Simile?Joon Sung Park says a $15 billion offer to sell Simile does not end the work when he has every reason to believe an ambitious idea exists that only Simile can…

People

More answers like this

Related episodes

Plays from this note through the rest of the episode.

Weekly highlights

One letter a week.

The notes worth hearing, with the minute they were said.