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Back to The $2B AI Startup Simulating Human Behavior with 85% Accuracy, with Joon Sung Park.

Why Doesn't a Buyout Offer End Simile?

Joon Sung Park says a $15 billion offer to sell Simile does not end the work when he has every reason to believe an ambitious idea exists that only Simile can pursue. Simile will pursue that idea.

People who stay influential across eras treat the greatest prize for winning the current game as the right and invitation to play the next one. Extreme commitment, stamina, and the ability to keep getting excited are what carry them. The reverse can be a mode of failure: optimizing for one fundraising, one customer, or one best paper, winning it, and then losing interest. Institutions and individuals who achieved incredible things can disappear over time. He will not call every disappearance a failure, and in many cases it can look like an amazing success. For anyone who wants impact across many generations and many eras, the split is short-term thinking versus long-term thinking: an exit tomorrow, or a bid to reshape how society operates for the better.

Grokipedia·Simile

Transcript

The $2B AI Startup Simulating Human Behavior with 85% Accuracy ·

Sourcery

More from this episode

  1. Why Do We Live in a Simulation?Joon Sung Park thinks we live in a simulation because any civilization will recreate itself to understand itself.
  2. What Was the Smallville AI Experiment?Joon Sung Park ran Smallville in 2022 and 2023 to see whether a language model could simulate a whole person, then a whole town.
  3. How Did Simile's Digital Twins Reach 85% Accuracy?Joon Sung Park says agents built as digital twins of real people predicted behavior with 85% or better accuracy by the end of 2024.
  4. When Is a Simile Simulation Confident Enough to Act on?Joon Sung Park says an AI simulation of a person is strong enough for a very high-stakes decision when confidence is higher than 90 percent, and usually when…
  5. Why Did Winning Electric Vehicle Messaging Lower Sales?Joon Sung Park says a message that looked like a clear winner for a new electric vehicle also shifted how people saw non-electric vehicles and lowered sales…
  6. Are Universal Basic Income Simulations Worth Running?Joon Sung Park calls universal basic income simulations good ones to run.
  7. Why Does Predicting Behavior Fail to Show What to Do?Joon Sung Park says a forecast is not what people came for.
  8. Is AI Behavior Simulation in Its GPT-4 Era?Joon Sung Park says AI behavior simulation is in its GPT-4 and GPT-4.5 era.

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