How Likely Is an AI Doomsday?

Peter Thiel does not think AI is going to kill everybody on the planet. A 5% to 10% chance sounds way too high to him, and maybe even a tiny bit above zero is too high. A bunker would not help for that kind of doomsday. People are very bad at these probabilities.

Not building is a risk too. It is dangerous not to hit the accelerator, because if China leapfrogs the United States in AI while the rivalry intensifies, China may be tempted to use it as a weapon. A thought experiment with no China, and therefore a reason to pause, is too crazy. The companies racing to build AI still have to be careful that it does not go badly wrong.