How Likely Is One Bad Artificial Intelligence Event?

Ezra Klein says discontinuous regulation is quite likely. He pictures a backlash that could pull AI out of classrooms and hospitals after a few bad events, and he asks how to think about one bad artificial intelligence event.

Paul Kedrosky says the companies have run unlicensed drug trials on the public. A drug company would have the FDA on its back. Technology companies, he says, can run mass trials, promise to transform all of education, and launch systems that can penetrate government websites. Paul Kedrosky says artificial intelligence is headed toward post hoc regulation after a terrible event, imposed only once consequential damage is done.

Paul Kedrosky stacks the odds. There are probably 5, 10, or 15 scenarios that might lead to regulation. Take six events and give each a 5% chance. The likelihood that any one of them happens, he says, is like 20%.