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Back to Bill Gates says to prepare for 20 years of ‘tumultuous’ AI disruption, with Bill Gates & Nilay Patel.

What Happens to White-collar Jobs When AI Is Superhuman?

Bill Gates says white-collar skills stop being scarce once AI is superhuman, so work such as telesales, telesupport, and help in an accounting department goes away. The systems do the work radically cheaper, faster, and more accurately. Jobs are an input to the economy and a large part of human welfare. They bring purpose, income, a need to show up, relationships with colleagues, and a way to get something done.

There is no mountaintop of cognition AI does not reach. In mathematics, models that are still trivial beside stronger ones are already publishing papers, and what is happening there will happen in other fields. The older view was that AI would finish only the easy tasks, while humans alone would model biology or physics or prove the Navier-Stokes equations. Work with an economic result can be checked, because people buy good products and skip bad ones. A poem may stay outside the check, because reinforcement learning needs an objective outcome.

Transcript

Bill Gates says to prepare for 20 years of ‘tumultuous’ AI disruption ·

Recode Decode, hosted by Kara Swisher

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  1. Why Does Bill Gates Fear AI Without Safeguards?Bill Gates says the near-term danger is very high for AI models where all the safeguards can be removed, and quite different from models monitored so cyber…
  2. Why Do People Dismiss AI Risk Warnings?Bill Gates says people dismiss AI risk warnings because past fears about technology, including the job market, never arrived, so the new warnings look like…
  3. What Is Bill Gates's Fix for Unsafe AI?Bill Gates says the only solution is for government to reach out to the industry for expertise and make sure every model maintains safeguards so the model…
  4. Did Bill Gates Fund Gain-of-function Research?No. Bill Gates says nobody has ever accused him or the Gates Foundation of being involved in any gain-of-function research.
  5. What Is Left Unsolved After AI Alignment?Bill Gates says solving AI alignment still leaves the challenges the technology poses to humanity.
  6. Why Is a Global AI Slowdown So Hard?Bill Gates says a true AI slowdown is very hard because China would have to agree to go along and compliance would have to be audited, somewhat as with…
  7. Is AI Risk More Imminent Than Climate Change?Yes.
  8. Will AI Data Centers Raise Electric Bills?Bill Gates says AI data centers will find a way to be built somewhere in the United States without raising electric bills, without using too much water, and…
  9. Why Does Bill Gates Pick Twenty Years of AI Disruption?Bill Gates picks twenty years as a reasonably safe number for a transition of winners, losers, and a lot of disruption that has to be crossed before a period…
  10. How Will AI Change Gates Foundation Health Work?Bill Gates says AI will accelerate healthcare discovery and delivery across the remaining 19 years of the Gates Foundation.
  11. Why Will Lawsuits Fail to Keep AI Safe?Bill Gates says lawsuits will fail to keep AI safe because the danger comes from people who take models without safeguards, not from the AI companies a court…
  12. Will AI Solve Food Shortages and Disease?Bill Gates says AI will solve food shortages and disease, including food shortages that are still real in Africa and not in the United States, and diseases…

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