Why Does Bill Gates Pick Twenty Years of AI Disruption?

Bill Gates picks twenty years as a reasonably safe number for a transition of winners, losers, and a lot of disruption that has to be crossed before a period of abundance. He allows the figure could land slightly sooner or slightly later, and still holds the same order of magnitude.

One available stance is to live like the Amish and use AI only for certain things. A memo proposes child care, food preparation, art, sports, and a variety of other work as professions kept human reserved, even where AI can do the work better. People will settle the choice as policy. Freedom of choice after abundance is very different from the shortage today. In countries in Africa, most people never meet a doctor, and almost half the kids are malnourished and do not develop their brain. Abundance eliminates a lot of what is tough about life today, even with the challenges that remain.

A variety of milestones sit behind the number, and humanoid robots are one example. Some would say humanoid robots are two or three years away, and other people would say more like eight years away. Given the capital and the number of companies at work, particularly in China, few people are arguing for the longer wait. A hand and fingers able to deliver physical labor at very, very low cost is not treated as unsolvable. If society does not choose to massively slow down or stop, robots will build houses, grow food, and do surgery, and human labor will not be necessary for most goods and services.